In the Midst of a Wheat Crisis, Find Your Flour Power!

‍“No matter how often and how many kinds of bread one has made, there always seems to be something new to learn.’

- Julia Child

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Wheat makes up 20% of the UK diet. What would you do if your supplier’s quality dropped? Source new suppliers and create new recipes.

Bread, amongst other essential wheat-based foods, is a staple in most people’s diets. Ideally, we’d like it to taste as if Julia Child baked it herself, with a swirl of French butter and a side glass of complimentary wine. But soon, quality could decline. With less and less wheat hitting mills, produce could lose quality, and suppliers could fold.

Why is Wheat Production Lower Now?

There are a number of reasons why wheat production is low:

Politics

In 2025 alone, the UK has had 2 farmer strikes so far. With less wheat hitting mills, flour production has slowed, and with flour being used in so much of the UK’s foods, the industry could be facing a loss in supplies. These situations can quickly become a standoff between two forces, causing a stunted supply chain.

The UK withdrew from the European Union on 31^st Jan 2020, and Brexit is still impacting the food supply chain in the UK. Lengthy customs delays mean shorter expiration dates on shelves, or ingredients reaching manufacturers in degraded conditions. This means manufacturers needed to produce goods quicker, or source new ingredients within the country to counter.

World Events

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic adversely affected the world in several ways. Strained supplies and high demand were in the news just as much as the virus’ impact on individual health. Everything from toilet rolls to hand sanitizer became scarce sending consumers mad with panic buying and hoarding. This caused consumer tensions to quicken supplier schedules, leading to frantic manufacturing. In turn, this could have led to accepting poor quality ingredients, lowering overall quality.

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is also affecting wheat supply. As one of the biggest agricultural exporters in the world, the Ukraine’s exports were approximately 5.2 million tons of grain and maize each month. However, with the country shrouded in war, those exports fell to 2 million tons, leaving a deficit. As this chain of events is still unfolding, there is no telling how much more of an impact it’ll have on worldwide produce.

Climate Change Affecting Crops

Weather has always affected crops, but climate change is birthing extremes that are deadly to wheat. Atmospheric carbon dioxide, constricted croplands, a growing population, and increased global temperatures, also referred to as heatflation, will put crop yields in some areas at risk. The changing conditions of the planet means farm lands may have to relocate; creating delays in harvests, and a break in the supply chain.

Pests who thrive in climate change conditions could also prove challenging. With existing pest control solutions unpredictable in this climate, detecting infestations early are crucial.

Damage control and sustainability practices should always be put in place where possible, but looking ahead is fast becoming a crucial part of every businesses’ supply chain, as climate change is set to worsen, rather than get better.

What Can Be Done?

Keeping an open mind about evolving your production line is necessary in such uncontrollable times. Having a clear contingency plan to pivot when needed to back up suppliers and recipes is crucial. Data driven decisions on site will have to be made, as one subpar ingredient can ruin a recipe; triggering customer dissatisfaction and, in the worst case scenarios, costly recalls, which can average at £10 million each!

Developing new recipes, adjusting existing formulas, monitoring compliance risks, and reducing waste all need the right technologies. With this in mind, investment is crucial to maintain your reputation, and your revenues.

How to Ensure Quality

As a manufacturer of food products, market share is everything. But without the right ingredients, bakeries cannot meet delivery deadlines; and with subpar ingredients you won’t meet quality standards. Either way, bakeries run the risk of losing sales and eventually customer loyalty. Adopting new suppliers when circumstances flex out of your control is essential in an unpredictable world.

Investing in equipment that can meet this demand could prove a wise addition to your plant and R&D facilities. KPM Analytics’ Mixolab Series can give an expansive image of flour quality, but can also show you where new flour can be fine-tuned within the recipe. The Mixolab Series doesn’t just analyze protein qualities, but also starch, which can have a massive impact on a baked product as it makes up to 70% of the flour. Mixolab can provide a spider web graph called the Mixolab Profiler that shows how flour will adapt to produce unique baking products. It’s plug and play and easy to use, so doesn’t require a scientist to work it.

Use our Mixolab Series to:

• Test new batches of flour
• Maintain quality control
• Adapt recipes
• Create new recipes
• Keep an analytical eye on existing recipes

As an industry reliant on wheat production, looking ahead at the conditions beyond anyone’s control is scary but necessary to inspire growth, change, and above all adaptability. And this is how we can safeguard quality in our food supply chain, and all tuck in to a loaf of bread that would make Julia Child proud.